LED lighting market to start benefiting industry ushered in its best condition
Since last year, LED industry, the economy began to pick up, a few years ago 5W LED lamps are 3-4 times the price of the same brightness energy-saving lamps, but in recent years, the speed of the upstream chip prices fell by about 30% per year, the cost of Heavy, 2013 LED end-product prices are basically flat with energy-saving lamps, LED industry is expected to enter phase comprehensive alternative to traditional lighting products.
Guotai Junan expects the industry to benefit from the current LED lighting market is ushering in the best historical scene starts, and has entered a long period of three years of high prosperity; while mainland enterprises to benefit from the technology, costs and supporting the comprehensive advantages will enjoy the world's premium LED manufacturing chain transfer .
Supply and demand pattern into the best historical circumstances. 1) Guotai Junan estimates, in 2014 the industry supply / demand ratio is only 1.04 (1.1 to secure water), close to 2010 industry highest level of the economy; 2) supply side significant contraction: CSA statistics, by the end of 2013 domestic total MOCVD 1090 units, compared with 2012 only an increase of about 110 units; far below the industry growth rate and the growth rate of downstream applications. With the substantial export subsidies, the future expansion will be more rational; 3) demand-side fast volume: LED lighting market has entered a growth of 15% penetration range, leading enterprises, for example, in 2014 new orders rose to up to two times more than the industry average growth rate can also looking through; accompanied by a large LED lighting cycle starts, is expected to round boom will continue for a long time.
Profitability is expected to improve: Upstream expected structural price increases, lower price range will decline narrowed. 1) chain research shows that by the end of 2013 to the end of May 2014, chip prices fell less than 3%, far better than market expectations of 10%, is expected to usher in the next big probability of structural price increases; medium and long term, with the extension chip switch to 4-inch mainstream size, chip size decreases and the luminous efficiency continued to improve, the chip is expected to continue to optimize profitability. 2) downstream applications for the market price after the initiative process, the price has dropped to close to energy-saving lamps, limited follow-price space. Research shows, 3WLED lights for nearly a year to 2.9 dollars decline in value of 33%, only 1.5 times the equivalent energy-saving lamps; while domestic cost-effective energy-saving lamp products nearing the price; medium and long term, with intelligent, dimmable rate increase, expected to increase the added value of the application side.
Ping An Securities believes that the 2014 LED market throughout the year, in light volume, the background of rapid growth in demand, many companies will usher in revenues and margins double inflection point. Situation from the perspective of industry chain research, this needs a lot of LED companies have mergers and acquisitions and refinancing, as second and third base LED corporate profits generally not high, so the corresponding results of elasticity is very large. YTD stock price rose from a point of view, A shares to three safety optoelectronics, as the representative of the sun lighting industry leader rose significantly lag.
While in China continue to enhance the competitiveness of enterprises, the vast domestic market, the outlook is bright background, the current round of peace that the market underestimated the penetration of LED home lighting enhance the overall industry to pull up flexibility. LED general lighting demand uncertainty explosive growth, and MOCVD machine no longer difficult to repeat the high investment and high growth in the past, LED chip supply and demand situation continues to improve. Ping judgment chip price declines this year are around a dozen points, and may be out of stock in the second quarter structural. Analysts continue to strongly recommend three safety optoelectronics, the company consolidate its leading position in the chip industry, wide band gap semiconductor poised, bright future. Midstream package, the recommendations concern the beneficiaries of industry consolidation, management capabilities continue to recommend the most prominent Jufei. Downstream, the recommended channel obvious advantages of Foshan Lighting and benefit from the industry to improve the economy, active layout of sun lighting its own channels.